2.2.5 When Does the Stronger Player Lose?

Let us now see what happens if the players have different strengths. Let A be 200 points stronger than player B . Let B ambitiously try to win against A . How can he do that? He must compensate his lower rating by a greater form on the day. Therefore his form on the day must be 200 points above that of his opponent. This moves the border between the red and the blue area 200 points up. Now the line intersects the point, where A's form on the day is 0 and B's form on the day is +200:

Bad news for B . The center circle (enclosing 40 % of the events) has colored almost completely red. That way B loses almost 20 % of his winning expectancy and keeps not much more than 30 %. Even worse: Outside the circle the red hatching has spread out too. In the end the chance to win for B sinks to 23.5 %.