2.2.6 The Winning Expectancy.

The expected probability to win is named the winning expectancy. If we investigate the winning expectancy as a function of the rating differences, we find:

Rating	0	20	40	60	80
0	0.500	0.471	0.443	0.414	0.386
100	0.359	0.333	0.307	0.282	0.258
200	0.235	0.214	0.193	0.174	0.157
300	0.140	0.125	0.111	0.098	0.087
400	0.077	0.067	0.059	0.051	0.045
500	0.039	0.034	0.029	0.026	0.022
600	0.019	0.016	0.014	0.012	0.011
700	0.009	0.008	0.007	0.006	0.005
800	0.004	0.004	0.003	0.003	0.002
900	0.002	0.002	0.001	0.001	0.001

Win expectancy as a function of the rating difference. The table has been computed using the bad-mistake model (See section 2.2.1 Which Player is better?.). But it equals almost exactly the Fide/Elo-distribution.